The Cost of Surviving Near Misses – When Escaping Danger Becomes a Risk
In safety, not every danger ends in tragedy. Sometimes buildings crack but do not collapse. Vehicles collide but lives are spared. Fires start but are extinguished before spreading. These moments are often celebrated as luck or divine intervention. Yet, in safety practice, they are known as near misses, and surviving them can come at a hidden cost.
A near miss is an incident that could have resulted in injury, loss of life, or major damage but did not. While the absence of casualties brings relief, the danger lies in what follows. Instead of triggering urgent reflection and change, near misses often create a false sense of security. People conclude that the system works, that the risk was exaggerated, or that they can survive it again.
Over time, this thinking weakens safety culture. When nothing bad happens, warnings feel unnecessary. Unsafe structures remain in use. Faulty equipment is managed rather than replaced. Risky behaviour becomes routine. The absence of immediate consequences trains people to tolerate danger.
In many African cities, near misses are common in markets, residential buildings, roads, and industrial sites. Fires are narrowly contained, overloaded buildings remain standing, and unsafe transport routes continue operating. Each escape reinforces the belief that disaster is unlikely. The reality is different. Near misses are early warnings, not proof of safety.
Psychologically, humans learn from outcomes, not probabilities. When a dangerous act does not lead to harm, the brain records it as acceptable. This is why drivers speed after avoiding accidents, why traders ignore fire exits after repeated scares, and why communities continue living with visible risks. Survival becomes evidence, even when it should be a warning.
Institutions also fall into this trap. Authorities may delay enforcement when incidents do not escalate. Organisations postpone safety investments because losses have not occurred. Near misses are rarely documented, analysed, or reported. Without records, patterns remain invisible until a major disaster exposes them.
The real cost of surviving near misses is complacency. It erodes urgency, dulls accountability, and normalises danger. When a tragedy finally occurs, investigations often reveal long histories of ignored warning signs. In many cases, the disaster was not sudden. It was rehearsed through repeated near misses.
A strong safety culture treats near misses as seriously as accidents. They are opportunities to learn without paying the ultimate price. Reporting them should be encouraged, not punished. Communities, organisations, and regulators must ask why the incident almost happened and what allowed the risk to exist.
Survival should not end the conversation. It should begin it. The absence of loss today does not mean safety tomorrow. In safety, luck is not protection. Learning is.
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